CLIMATE & MARKETS NOTE 03
El Niño 2026: how should heat pack buyers plan?
Implications for China and Pacific Rim markets
RESEARCH ASSESSMENT · SOURCES CHECKED 12 OCTOBER 2026
El Niño is established and strengthening in 2026. That alone does not establish whether heat pack sales will rise or fall.For buyers in China and around the Pacific, the practical questions are when cold days arrive, how long they last and whether stock reaches stores in time. Our assessment is to maintain a base supply and confirm additional orders in stages, using local forecasts and actual sales alongside seasonal outlooks.
Which winter are we planning for?
By October, the relevant selling season spans two calendar years: the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. That is a different window from full-year 2026 revenue. Orders from January to March should not be explained retrospectively by the El Niño now strengthening.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirmed further strengthening in its 8 October discussion, with a strong-to-very-strong event likely to persist through January–March 2027. The World Meteorological Organization's update on the same date also described an intensifying event and changes to temperature and rainfall patterns. These are assessments of the ocean–atmosphere system, not winter weather forecasts for every Chinese city.[1][2]
For a heat pack buyer, an ocean temperature index is an early signal to review a plan. Turning it into an order requires further evidence about regional weather, product use and retail sales.
What the research explains—and what still needs sales data
El Niño involves persistent warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific alongside changes in atmospheric circulation. Its influence reaches East Asia through changes in atmospheric circulation. A study by Wang, Wu and Fu in the Journal of Climate examined the role of an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone and its connection with a weaker East Asian winter monsoon.[3]
This provides a physical basis for understanding a tendency toward winter warmth. It does not provide a coefficient linking each degree of ocean warming to heat pack sales. Estimating that relationship would require several years of comparable local product and weather records, accounting for prices, promotions, changes in store coverage and stockouts.
Capotondi and colleagues' review, Understanding ENSO Diversity, describes differences in event strength, spatial patterns and evolution, with consequences for their impacts.[4] Reusing a purchasing rule from one previous warm winter can therefore miss the conditions that made it work.
These papers guide our method: examine the mechanism, then check this year's forecasts and local evidence. Neither paper studies heat pack demand, and their authors have not reviewed or endorsed our purchasing assessment.
China: a warmer average can still leave a short rush to restock
China's National Climate Center forecast near- or above-normal temperatures across much of the country in its October outlook, issued on 30 September. The same bulletin anticipated four cold-air episodes.[5] Both can be true: a warm monthly average does not describe every day. These were forecasts issued before October, not confirmation that every listed episode occurred, and not a whole-winter prediction.
Consider a hypothetical shop selling a thousand packs. Sales spread evenly across a month require a different delivery plan from the same quantity sold around four cold days. A seasonal outlook can inform inventory limits; city forecasts and store sales are closer to the next replenishment decision.
Retail conditions matter, without standing in for the category
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported January–August 2026 growth of 1.1% in total retail sales of consumer goods and 4.3% in online goods sales. Convenience-store sales among retail enterprises above the designated size grew 5.5%. These are monetary measures of retail and channel conditions, not heat pack unit sales or category e-commerce growth.[6]
A useful hypothesis to test is whether broader distribution and faster delivery can offset some change in purchase frequency during milder weather. Small convenience-store packs can be reviewed through store-level stock turnover; online bundles also need conversion, order size and discount data. They should not share one replenishment rule. Our China market review and 2026 outlook covers the longer retail context.
Our assessment for the remaining selling season
El Niño alone does not justify raising a national sales target or cutting inventory by one percentage everywhere. Establish a base from ordinary channel sales, then connect additional purchases to changes in weather, sales and delivery times.
| What happens | What to check | Our suggested response |
|---|---|---|
| Persistent mild weather and slower sales | Comparable stores and products; distortion from discounts or stockouts | Slow unconfirmed additional orders and work through existing channel stock. Transfers between warehouses are not consumer purchases. |
| A sharp cold spell and a local sales spike | City forecasts, goods in transit, store stock and replenishment days | Prioritize stock that can arrive in time and agreed reorder batches. A few busy days do not justify buying for the whole winter. |
| Ordinary weather, stronger sales from wider distribution | New-store contributions versus sales in existing stores | Account for channel expansion separately instead of attributing all growth to weather. |
Across the Pacific, one climate event creates different planning questions
The Pacific Rim spans different latitudes and both hemispheres. As China and North America enter winter, Australia and New Zealand move toward summer. The selected markets below illustrate differences relevant to warmer purchasing and supply; this is not a complete forecast for every Pacific country.
| Market and period | Official evidence | How a buyer could use it |
|---|---|---|
| Western United States October–December 2026 | Current forecast: NOAA's 17 September outlook favors warmth across much of the area west of the Rockies, with increased odds of wetter conditions in southern California and other regions.[8] | Separate coastal urban sales from high-elevation outdoor channels. More rain does not directly mean colder weather or stronger warmer sales; also monitor event cancellations and transport disruption. |
| Canada Winter into spring | Historical relationship: Environment and Climate Change Canada describes milder winters and springs in western, northwestern and central Canada, with less influence in the east.[9] | A Vancouver assessment should not automatically apply to Toronto or Montréal. Divide demand by destination and outdoor use, then consult local outlooks. |
| Japan Winter | Historical relationship: JMA's analysis associates El Niño winters with near- or above-normal temperatures in western Japan, not uniform warming nationwide.[10] | Manage urban commuting, northern markets and mountain tourism separately. Reorders need local sales evidence. |
| Australia Southern winter, spring and season end | Historical relationship: BOM describes generally drier winters and springs in central and eastern Australia and warmer daytime conditions in the south.[11] | For October–December, check remaining seasonal stock and specific outdoor uses first. Northern Hemisphere winter buying schedules do not transfer directly. |
| New Zealand October–December 2026 | Current forecast: The 1 October Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA outlook indicates more westerly winds, warmth favored in many regions and wetter conditions in the western South Island.[12] | Assess destinations and activities individually, including disruption from wind and rain. Northern winter commentary is not a local seasonal forecast. |
| Coastal Peru and Ecuador During the event's influence | Historical relationship: Canada's climate agency explains how warmer eastern Pacific waters can bring warmer, wetter conditions along these coasts.[9] | Review local delivery and storage arrangements first. This does not establish higher coastal heat pack demand or describe high-altitude Andean markets. |
US statistics require another distinction. Census Bureau retail reports organize monetary sales mainly by business type; they do not isolate disposable warmer unit sales. The annual revision released on 28 September 2026 also superseded the old August advance report. Comparisons should use one consistent revision, and nominal revenue should not be treated as pack volume.[7] We therefore do not apply an aggregate US retail growth rate to heat pack export orders.
A working checklist for heat pack and hand warmer buyers
A forecast spreadsheet is easy to change. Printed packaging and delivery lead times are harder. Before confirming an order, establish which terms can be adjusted: staged deliveries, reorder minimums, artwork deadlines and the conditions that affect price or timing. Each arrangement still needs agreement between buyer and supplier.
Track adhesive body warmers separately from hand warmers. Their use cases differ; combining them into one “winter essentials” stock figure can hide a mismatch. See our materials and packaging analysis for product principles, or the Canada buyer page for model and packaging discussions.
- Record the same fields each week: city, channel, model, packs sold, pieces per pack, realized price, promotions, stockout days, available stock and goods in transit. Keep packs, pieces and revenue distinct.
- Align weather with sales dates: retain local temperatures, cold episodes and forecast issue dates. Use observations to explain outcomes, and the forecast available at the time to evaluate a decision.
- Reorder against delivery-time demand: a starting calculation is expected sales during the lead time, plus safety stock based on your own variability, less available stock and confirmed inbound supply arriving in time. This is an accounting framework, not a quantity already estimated by this article.
- Write down why a plan changed: was it weather, faster sales or new distribution? The record makes a useful end-of-season review possible.
With those records, El Niño becomes a purchasing assumption that can be checked and revised. Next year's review should be able to identify the cities where timely replenishment worked, rather than attaching a climate label to every change in sales.
References and scope
Prepared by LinHang NuanXin from public sources for disposable air-activated body and hand warmers. Evidence cutoff: 12 October 2026. Main planning window: Q4 2026–Q1 2027. Papers inform climate mechanisms and limitations; business scenarios are our analysis. We have not conducted an independent sales survey, causal estimation or external academic review. Cited institutions and authors do not endorse our products or forecasts.
- NOAA CPC: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion8 October 2026 issue; this page updates monthly. Used for event status and expected persistence, not regional sales.
- WMO: Sea surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño8 October 2026. Corroborates event development and the geographical scope of climate effects.
- Wang, B., Wu, R., & Fu, X. (2000). Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?Journal of Climate, 13(9), 1517–1536. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2. Peer-reviewed research on the circulation mechanism.
- Capotondi, A., Wittenberg, A. T., Newman, M., et al. (2015). Understanding ENSO Diversity.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96(6), 921–938. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1. Available through NOAA's repository; used for event-to-event differences.
- China National Climate Center: October 2026 climate outlook, issue 6430 September 2026. Temperature and cold-air statements were forecasts at issue time, not full-winter projections or subsequent observations.
- China National Bureau of Statistics: January–August 2026 retail sales15 September 2026. Total retail, online goods and designated-size convenience-store figures are nominal monetary measures, not warmer category volumes.
- U.S. Census Bureau: 2026 Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services (PDF)28 September 2026 revision. Read with the August advance retail report (updating PDF) for revision notices and the treatment of prices. No superseded growth estimate is used here.
- NOAA CPC: Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks17 September 2026 issue, October–December outlook. This page updates; seasonal odds are not weekly forecasts.
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: El NiñoHistorical relationships and mechanisms, accessed 12 October 2026. Used for Canada and eastern Pacific coastal context, not this year's local forecast.
- Japan Meteorological Agency: Japanese weather during El NiñoHistorical winter analysis through 2020/2021, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology: El Niño — what it means for Australia's climateUpdated 17 September 2026. Typical winter and spring effects, not a replacement for local seasonal forecasts.
- Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA: Seasonal Climate Outlook, October–December 2026Issued 1 October 2026. Used for current temperature, wind and regional rainfall expectations.
Revision record: 12 October 2026 · First edition. Material changes to climate outlooks or statistical versions will be dated and explained. Share comparable local observations through the links below; we will confirm consent before quoting correspondence.