CHINA MARKET OUTLOOK NOTE 02
Where is China’s heat pack market heading?
A 2023–2025 review and 2026 sales outlook
OUR ASSESSMENT · INFORMATION THROUGH 2026.10.12
Plan for continuing demand, cautious growth and concentrated sales during cold spells. Without a consistent national series for disposable heat pack sales, our provisional planning assumption is flat to modestly higher unit sales in 2026. Revenue also depends on realized prices. Confidence in this directional assessment is low; it should be revised as fourth-quarter weather, comparable-store sales and replenishment data become available.
We distinguish reported facts from our interpretation below. The retail growth figures describe the wider economy and must not be cited as heat pack industry growth.
01 / What does this review cover?
The scope is disposable, air-activated body patches and hand warmers sold within China. We review the three complete years from 2023 to 2025 and discuss calendar year 2026. Electric hand warmers, hot-water bottles, self-heating food and medical-device warming products are excluded. The 2026/2027 winter is also different from the 2026 calendar year.
As of the review date, we have not obtained a consistent national annual series for heat pack retail revenue and unit sales. This is therefore a review of public evidence with conditional scenarios, rather than an estimate of national market size. Sources include National Bureau of Statistics retail data, meteorological information and a company case reported by a local government.
For buyers, the practical questions are when demand might strengthen, which signals justify replenishment and when inventory should be limited.
02 / Three years of context: retail growth and slowing online growth
| Year | Total retail sales of consumer goods | Online retail sales of physical goods | Original source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +7.2% | +8.4% | NBS [1] |
| 2024 | +3.5% | +6.5% | NBS [2] |
| 2025 | +3.7% | +5.2% | NBS [3] |
Year-on-year growth in online retail sales of physical goods
All bars use the same scale; full width represents 10%. This chart does not measure online heat pack sales.
2023: a recovering retail environment
Total retail sales and online physical-goods sales both grew. This establishes the environment in which heat pack sellers operated, but there is insufficient evidence to assign the same recovery rate to heat packs. Identifying category changes requires sales records for comparable channels and specifications.
2024: continued online growth, with statistical details to check
Online physical-goods sales grew faster than total retail sales. In our interpretation, this supports continued attention to online channels; it does not demonstrate growth for every online heat pack business. The absolute 2024 retail total also differs between the monthly release and the later annual communiqué. We compare officially reported growth rates to avoid splicing different versions of the totals. [2][8]
2025: look closely at the quality of business growth
Online physical-goods sales continued growing, at a lower rate than in the previous two years. Our business interpretation is to assess heat pack performance through unit sales, realized prices, returns and repeat purchases together, rather than rely on a platform’s cumulative order display. [3]
03 / What can one company case tell us?
In December 2025, the Gongyi municipal government website reported on local manufacturer Henan Muhong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. The report describes heat pack production and online retail, stores on platforms including Tmall, JD.com and Pinduoduo, and an expanding range of product formats. It offers one concrete example of production, product segmentation and multiple online channels operating together. [5]
The report also describes annual sales exceeding 100 million patches, without independent audit evidence, product composition or a comparable annual series. That figure is a reported company-scale indicator only. We do not use it to estimate the national market, market share or industry growth.
For a new brand, we draw three questions to investigate, rather than national market conclusions:
- Does each product clearly address a use case? Present body patches and hand warmers with their respective uses, instructions and specifications. Longer duration alone is not a complete distinction.
- Can channel results be compared? Align sales, refunds, promotions and reporting periods before comparing platforms.
- How much demand is additional? Track whether a new format increases overall sales or shifts demand from existing products.
We do not treat search interest, review counts or displayed cumulative sales as actual sales for a specific year. Growth figures for electric heaters or rechargeable hand warmers are not applied to disposable heat packs.
04 / A warm winter can still contain cold spells
The China Meteorological Administration’s 2024 climate bulletin reports that the national average temperature in winter 2023/2024 was 0.3°C above normal, while 12 cold-air episodes affected China that winter, more than usual. China Weather subsequently cited National Climate Center data showing winter 2024/2025 was 0.4°C above normal. [6][7]
A warmer seasonal average therefore does not rule out sharp temperature drops. Our inventory interpretation is to monitor when cooling occurs in the target region, how long it lasts and how actual orders respond. A national annual temperature average alone is a weak basis for planning annual heat pack sales.
These are historical observations, not a forecast for winter 2026. We do not assume a cold winter this year or convert a change in temperature directly into a sales growth rate.
05 / Three scenarios for 2026 sales
Published data for January–August 2026 show total retail sales up 1.1% year on year and online goods retail sales up 4.3%. They indicate modest overall retail growth and continued online goods growth. They remain background indicators, not heat pack sales results. [4]
Baseline / Flat to modestly higher unit sales
Volume: Provisionally plan for flat to modestly higher annual unit sales, provided winter demand in target markets is not materially weaker than usual and channel coverage and supply remain normal.
Revenue: Growth depends on net realized prices and product mix. Slightly higher volume alongside lower prices can still produce flat or falling revenue.
Basis and limits: Online consumption is growing and public cases show continuing activity in the category. However, national sales data and category results for the first three quarters are missing. A reliable percentage forecast is not possible. This is a low-confidence editorial judgment.
Weaker case / Pressure on volume and revenue
Triggers: Fewer relevant cold days in core sales regions, high channel inventories and slower comparable-store sell-through that does not improve after promotions.
Possible result: Annual unit sales may fall. Discounted clearance can place additional pressure on revenue. Prioritize existing inventory and be cautious about committing to new product packaging.
Stronger case / Cooling brings concentrated replenishment
Triggers: Sustained cooling in major regions, improved actual comparable-store sales and replenishment orders, with supply arriving inside the selling window.
Possible result: Higher sales during those periods improve annual results. Revenue growth still does not guarantee profit growth if expedited freight or promotions absorb the gains.
Why is there no percentage forecast or national revenue estimate?
Comparable national unit sales, net retail prices, channel coverage and historical weather sensitivity are missing. Assigning arbitrary values would create precision that cannot be verified. These scenarios have no assigned probabilities and are not statistical confidence intervals.
With comparable data, annual sales could be estimated as actual sales to date plus a forecast for the remaining months. That forecast would need historical seasonality, comparable-store trends and weather. Simply multiplying eight months of sales by 12/8 would ignore seasonality. Factory shipment figures also need adjustment for changes in channel inventories.
The January–August 2026 statistical notes describe changes to online consumption indicator names and scope. We use the officially reported growth in online goods retail sales. We do not splice the broader online goods-and-services total into the earlier total online retail series. See the indicator notes in source [4].
06 / Turn the assessment into a weekly inventory review
For brands and distributors, a rolling observation sheet is more actionable than one annual forecast. Fix the region, channel and product specification before making comparisons.
| Indicator | How to record it | What it helps establish |
|---|---|---|
| Actual units sold | Deduct returns; convert multipacks to individual units. | Distinguish sell-through from inventory pushed into channels. |
| Net realized unit price | Divide comparable net receipts by units. | Separate volume changes from price changes. |
| Inventory and lead time | Record sellable stock, goods in transit and replenishment days. | Check whether new stock can reach the selling window. |
| Local weather | Record cold days and cooling duration in target cities. | Review whether local orders respond to weather. |
| Stockouts and after-sales issues | Record stockout days, refunds and complaint reasons. | Avoid mistaking unavailable stock for weaker demand. |
Build an initial order around confirmed core specifications and leave room for replenishment based on actual sell-through. Initial quantities, lead times and stock limits should come from the buyer’s own history and supply conditions. For product differences, read our heat pack materials guide.
Sources and methodology
Scope: disposable air-activated body patches and hand warmers sold within China. Review period: 2023–2025; outlook: calendar year 2026. Information cutoff: 2026-10-12. We conducted no independent national sales survey and used no unpublished LinHang NuanXin order data. All scenarios and inventory suggestions are this article’s analysis. Source titles below are descriptive English translations; linked originals are in Chinese.
- NBS: December 2023 retail sales grew 7.4%Published 2024-01-17. We cite the full-year 2023 retail and online physical-goods growth figures in the release.
- NBS: December 2024 retail sales grew 3.7%Published 2025-01-17. Full-year 2024 growth; absolute totals from before and after revision are not spliced together.
- NBS: December 2025 retail sales grew 0.9%Published 2026-01-19. Full-year 2025 growth figures.
- NBS: January–August 2026 retail sales grew 1.1%Published 2026-09-15. Current-year retail context and notes on changes to online retail indicators.
- Gongyi municipal government: Local manufacturing enters the cold-weather consumer market2025-12-11, attributed to Yong’an Road Subdistrict. A company case, not national industry statistics.
- China Meteorological Administration: China Climate Bulletin 2024 (PDF)See body page 23 for winter 2023/2024 temperatures and cold-air episodes. Historical observations, not this year’s forecast.
- China Weather: National Climate Center reports a record national average temperature in 2025Published 2026-01-02. We cite the winter 2024/2025 temperature anomaly.
- NBS: Statistical Communiqué on 2024 National Economic and Social DevelopmentPublished 2025-02-28. Used to check annual reporting and statistical comparability.
Revision history: 2026-10-12 · First edition. Comparable category sales data, if obtained, will support a quantitative update with the reason for revision recorded.